by Lacey Pfalz
Last updated: 8:30 AM ET, Fri May 8, 2026
The U.S. travel industry is expected to grow at low but still positive rates this year, offset by economic pressures, including high inflation, gas prices and geopolitical uncertainty, according to a new spring travel update by the U.S. Travel Association.
The organization's Spring 2026 U.S. Travel Update expects travel spending growth to be up 1% this year, but to accelerate to 3% in 2027 and 2028.
Total travel spending, adjusted for inflation, is expected to reach $1.37 trillion in 2026. Domestic travel will account for 87% of that spending. Still, with the World Cup this summer, international inbound travel is predicted to rebound after dropping last year, increasing by 1.6% after a 2.4% annual decline in 2025. International travel is also expected to generate $178 billion in spending.
Domestic leisure travel is expected to grow 0.9% after last year's 2.1% growth, with rates increasing through 2027. This travel category is the only segment that's above pre-pandemic levels.
Higher-income Americans will continue to dominate the travel scene in the U.S. as inflation and the high cost of living, including gas prices caused by the U.S.-Israel war on Iran, will shift lower-income travelers to take shorter trips or fewer trips annually.
"Travel continues to be one of the most resilient and essential sectors of the U.S. economy," said Joshua Friedlander, Vice President, Research, U.S. Travel Association. "Even with inflation and broader economic pressures, Americans are continuing to invest in experiences, reunions and business connections that happen through travel."
International Inbound Travel
After falling 2.4% in 2025, international inbound travel spending is expected to increase 1.6% this year, reaching $178 billion, spurred by the World Cup. Yet this figure is still 18% below pre-pandemic levels, showing how far the nation still has to go before it's back to where it used to be as a desirable destination for travelers from other countries.
Inbound international visitation decreased 5.5% in volume last year. This year, it's expected to increase 3.4% from last year, driven by major world sporting events. Yet a return to pre-pandemic visitation numbers isn't expected until 2029.
The U.S. Travel Association notes that "the pace of international inbound travel recovery remains sensitive to policy conditions, global sentiment and geopolitical stability."
Business travel in the United States grew 1.1% last year, generating $317 billion. In 2026, that number is expected to grow at a more moderate 0.7%, remaining below leisure travel growth due to current economic headwinds.
Problems on the Horizon
While growth is positive overall, the U.S. Travel Association does admit that the future seems more uncertain than ever: high energy prices, prolonged war in the Middle East, a depressed consumer sentiment, wavering confidence in international visitation and negative sentiment towards the United States could all play a role in a more moderate growth, or lead to decreases in the overall projections.
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